The US economic landscape showed several notable trends in recent data releases. In March, the US merchandise trade deficit ballooned to $162 billion, a 9.6% increase from the previous month and a new all - time high, well above the expected $142 billion. This was mainly driven by businesses "rushing to import" ahead of tariff implementations, which pushed the total import value to $342.7 billion, a 5% year - on - year increase. Consumer goods imports hit a record high, and imports of autos and capital goods also rose significantly.
Regarding the housing market, in February, the S&P/CS 20 - City Composite Home Price Index rose 4.50% year - on - year, lower than the expected 4.70%, and the previous value was 4.67%. The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.1% month - on - month, less than the expected 0.3%, and the year - on - year increase was 3.9%, with the previous value revised from a 4.8% increase to 5.0%. These figures indicate a certain degree of fluctuation in the US housing market.
Furthermore, the cost of the 5 - year US Treasury bond credit default swap (CDS) has jumped from 37 basis points before the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement to 52 basis points, indicating increased investor concerns about the US credit risk. In contrast, the CDS prices of France, Germany, and even Italy are basically stable. Currently, the default insurance cost of US Treasury bonds is twice that of Italy, even though Italy's public debt - to - GDP ratio is as high as 135%, much higher than the US's 121%.
